the edit, vol. 6

a week where markets blinked, voters spoke, and the price of everything reminded us it never really sleeps.

november 9th, 2025.

markets: the rally loses its nerve

stocks slid — and then sank. by friday, the nasdaq officially logged its lowest level since april, closing out a brutal week for tech as ai-heavy names led the decline. the s&p 500 and dow followed suit, both finishing in the red as the rally that began this summer lost steam.

risk aversion wasn’t just american. japan’s nikkei recorded its weakest performance since early spring as chipmakers and ai stocks tumbled, mirroring u.s. tech’s slide.

the so-called safe corners — gold and oil — crept higher, each up less than 1%. bitcoin briefly broke below $100,000, its lowest mark in months, before recovering slightly. psychological lines matter more than logic, but markets trade on feeling as much as math.

sources: bloomberg, the economic times, investopedia, and wsj.

sentiment: vibes are data

beneath the charts, household confidence hit bottom.

the university of michigan’s preliminary november survey showed consumer sentiment at 50.3, just a hair above its 2022. record low. inflation fatigue, higher grocery and energy bills, and a government shutdown now in its sixth week all dragged on optimism. when sentiment falls this far, spending usually follows.

sources: university of michigan, scad

shutdown math: politics meets pocketbook

washington remains closed. senate republicans are divided on how to reopen the government — and on what terms. the main fault line: extending affordable care act (aca) subsidies, which democratic leaders argue are essential to keep middle-income coverage stable.

the house, meanwhile, is working on a bipartisan draft that would extend enhanced aca subsidies temporarily — not permanently, but long enough to blunt 2026 premium spikes. the question now isn’t if the shutdown ends — it’s what price both sides are willing to pay.

sources: cbs news, politico

ballots, not vibes: a democratic wave

if the markets lacked direction, the voters didn’t.
democrats swept key contests from new york to virginia to new jersey, signaling a preference for stability over spectacle. the wins were broad — nyc’s mayoral race, governor’s seats in virginia and new jersey, and a california measure that could add more democratic house seats next cycle.

in virginia, abigail spanberger’s victory anchored a statewide blue surge. mikie sherrill did the same in new jersey, while zohran mamdani’s youth coalition in new york energized a new voter bloc.

the takeaway: competence, not chaos, is back in fashion.

sources: the washington post, reuters, ap news

groceries: the quiet tax

food inflation is slower — but still stubborn.
food-at-home prices rose 2.7% year over year, while dining out climbed 3.7%, according to the latest cpi data. meats, eggs, and beverages led the rise. less shock than 2022 — but still a quiet tax on the weekly shop.

source: bureau of labor statistics

open enrollment: why your health insurance is up

it’s open-enrollment season, and nearly everyone is paying more.
the average employer family plan now costs $26,993 a year — up 6% — with workers contributing about $6,850.
the reasons are structural: higher hospital costs and wages, expensive new drugs (like glp-1s), and a post-pandemic rebound in care use.

in the individual market, 2025 premiums rose modestly — but 2026 filings already signal larger hikes ahead. if congress lets enhanced aca tax credits expire next year, many middle-income households could see premiums jump sharply. policy choices, not border crossings, drive that outcome.

sources: kff, health system tracker

fact check: “illegals” didn’t raise your premium

the claim is popular. the math disagrees.

premiums rise because health care itself costs more to deliver — not because of who’s receiving it.
→ hospitals are paying record labor and input costs
→ utilization is up across age groups
→ specialty drugs (including glp-1s and gene therapies) drive higher average spend

undocumented immigrants are largely ineligible for federal subsidies. the real wildcard for next year’s rates is whether congress renews aca tax credits.

cms, meanwhile, has focused on tightening enrollment integrity and subsidy methodology — small, technocratic changes that move rates far more than rhetoric.

translation: your premium rose because american health care is expensive — not because of a talking point.

sources: reuters, time, centers for medicare & medicaid services, health system tracker

trump & the gop: the policy signals the market heard

investors spent the week parsing the trump administration’s economic tone: a hard line on spending amid the shutdown, mixed messaging on tariffs, and renewed uncertainty on aca subsidies. together, those signals pushed risk-sensitive sectors lower and rippled into asian markets by week’s end.

source: cbs news

the week, distilled

equities: breadth narrowed, valuations reset, nasdaq hit its lowest point since april. (bloomberg)

crypto: bitcoin slipped below $100k before rebounding — the “mid-cycle shakeout” narrative grows. (yahoo finance)

macro vibe: consumer sentiment fell toward record lows; shutdown fatigue now visible in data. (scad)

politics: democrats’ sweep reaffirmed appetite for moderation and governance. (reuters)

prices you feel: groceries still up year over year; eating out up more. (bureau of labor statistics)

benefits reality: employer premiums +6%; aca market facing higher 2026 costs unless congress extends credits. (kff)

one last thought

taste is political because policy lives in our carts, our co-pays, and our commutes.
this week, markets priced uncertainty. voters priced in restraint.

both are saying the same thing: give us clarity.