the edit, vol. 10
closing the door: how visa restrictions reshape u.s. competitiveness
this week’s shift
on december 2 (publicly reported december 3), the federal government ordered a pause on nearly all immigration applications—including green cards and naturalizations—for people from 19 countries previously under travel restrictions, as part of a national-security review.
at the same time, a new state department cable directed consular officers to apply “enhanced vetting” to visa applicants, with additional scrutiny of h-1b petitions where candidates previously worked in areas tied to content moderation, fact-checking, or so-called “misinformation.” officers may deny petitions if they determine the applicant may have engaged in “censorship of protected expression.”
taken together, these actions signal more than tightened security checks. they redefine who is allowed to study, work, and build in the united states—at a moment when economic growth depends heavily on attracting skilled and specialized workers.
the economic case for immigration
the congressional budget office (cbo) estimates that the post-2021 rise in immigration will increase u.s. gdp by $1.3 trillion (about 3.2%) by 2034, and by $8.9 trillion over the next decade, compared with a lower-immigration baseline. the same inflow is projected to reduce federal deficits by about $900 billion, because workers contribute more in taxes over time than they receive in federal benefits.
in 2024, foreign-born workers made up 19.2% of the u.s. labor force—roughly 31 million people. immigrants are overrepresented in stem fields, healthcare, academia, construction, caregiving, and agriculture.
across cbo and federal reserve analyses, immigration is consistently identified as a critical driver of long-term economic capacity. fewer workers mean slower potential gdp, regardless of the unemployment rate.
a harder route for high-skill talent
policy changes are increasingly constricting the flow of highly skilled workers—and raising the cost of accessing legal pathways.
immigrants have driven a significant share of net growth in the stem workforce since the mid-1990s. by 2019, 23% of u.s. stem workers were foreign-born, up from about 16% in 2000. this workforce underpins patenting, research output, biotech development, engineering, and startup creation.
now, new barriers are emerging:
the $100,000 employer fee
effective september 21, 2025, employers filing new h-1b petitions for individuals abroad without a valid h-1b visa must pay a one-time $100,000 fee per petition, on top of all existing filing and compliance charges.
additional rising costs
h-1b petition fee: $780
new “asylum program fee” for employers: $600 per petition
premium processing: $2,805
acwia training fee: $750–$1,500
fraud prevention fee: $500
green card pathways typically carry $5,000–$10,000 in legal fees, $1,440–$3,000 in filing costs, and years of processing. for applicants from countries with the largest backlogs, those waits can extend beyond ten years.
research from multiple federal reserve banks indicates that these rising costs and uncertainties disproportionately reduce the number of new college-educated immigrants the u.s. attracts—particularly in stem fields.
how talent compounds over time
immigration’s economic impact is not short-lived. skilled immigrants contribute to sustained innovation, higher productivity, and long-term growth in ways that compound over generations.
economic research shows that immigration boosts output, innovation, and productivity. immigrants make up over 25% of u.s. entrepreneurs while representing about 14% of the population, and generate 23% of all patents, including many of the most cited. they also account for over 40% of phds in science and engineering, and the majority of graduate students in key fields like engineering and computer science.
regions with higher inflows of skilled immigrants consistently see stronger r&d, faster productivity growth, and more firm creation, showing how these gains accumulate over time.
when these workers and students are absent, regions experience slower startup formation, weaker research pipelines, and fewer advanced-industry clusters.
the benefits extend well beyond the first generation, shaping the country’s economic capacity for decades.
the common misconception: “fewer immigrants = more opportunity for u.s. workers”
research does not support the idea that reducing immigration meaningfully improves job prospects or wages for workers already in the united states.
studies of wage trends consistently find minimal overall impact from immigration.
a recent nber working paper analyzing outcomes between 2019 and 2022 finds no significant displacement of existing workers and, in some cases, small positive effects for workers with lower higher-education levels.
broader policy analyses highlight that immigrants and the existing workforce often serve complementary roles, enabling firms to expand, innovate, and hire more widely.
in short: reducing immigration does not reliably raise pay or create more jobs for residents. it often slows the very economic activity that supports job creation.
where the u.s. slows, others are scaling up
globally, countries are treating immigration as an economic competitiveness strategy.
hong kong
the top talent pass scheme (launched in late 2022) targets high-income professionals and graduates from the world’s top universities—including ivy leagues. official figures show 380,000+ applications and roughly 160,000 approvals, many not requiring a job offer before arrival.
mainland china
the k-visa program (launching october 1, 2025) aims to attract young global stem graduates and researchers with simplified work authorization and residency—a direct effort to expand china’s international talent pool.
canada, the u.k., germany, australia
canada plans to welcome 485,000–500,000 permanent residents annually through 2026, with priority categories for stem, health, and skilled trades.
the u.k., germany, and australia have expanded points-based or fast-track visas designed specifically for engineers, researchers, and high-income professionals.
talent is mobile. when the u.s. signals uncertainty or escalating costs, these countries signal opportunity: “if you can’t build your future there, build it here.”
what to watch next
h-1b filings after the $100,000 fee takes effect: early declines would signal a shrinking pipeline of highly skilled workers.
international student enrollment: stem master’s and phd programs are key sources of future innovation; any drop is a long-term warning sign.
company hiring patterns: firms may increasingly shift r&d or engineering teams abroad rather than navigate a slower, more expensive visa system.
regional divergences: states and cities with policies welcoming immigrant workers may gain economic momentum, while others face slower labor-force growth and weaker competitiveness.
these shifts compound over time, shaping the country’s economic trajectory for decades.
the signals beneath this week’s headlines
limiting who can contribute ultimately limits what’s possible. immigration has long been one of the strongest drivers of u.s. economic dynamism—fueling innovation, expanding the workforce, and supporting public finances.
tightening access, raising costs, and narrowing pathways do not guarantee higher wages or greater security for americans. what they reliably produce is a smaller, slower, less competitive economy, with fewer innovations and fewer opportunities to grow.
